Believe it or not, the Thanksgiving tradition in the United States did not begin in Detroit in 1934. That's when the Lions started playing on the fourth Thursday in November; the Dallas Cowboys jumped on board in 1966, and 40 years later, the NFL created the Thanksgiving Classic tripleheader. We just can't get enough football betting – or cranberry sauce, for that matter. If that weren't enough, all three of our Turkey Day games will have live betting available.
New England at Detroit (12:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Lions (2-8 SU, 7-3 ATS) almost lost their Thanksgiving spot in 2008 after the usual suspects in the mainstream media complained about the lack of playoff implications. Once again, Detroit is well out of the picture, but you won't find a more profitable team in the NFL. The Lions franchise is on the upswing with Martin Mayhew as GM and Jim Schwartz as head coach. However, injuries have felled QB Matthew Stafford (shoulder) and several other important Lions for this matchup. They've dropped the cash in their last two games.
New England (8-2 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) is the true birthplace of American Thanksgiving, and locals have every reason to be thankful with the Patriots tied for the best record in the NFL. According to the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders, the 2010 Patriots offense is nearly as good as the 2007 version, which was the year the Pats went undefeated all the way up to the Super Bowl. But New England's defense only ranks No. 27 in the league, leaving the OVER at 8-2 on the season. The Week 11 NFL odds have the Patriots at –7 with a total of 51 points.
New Orleans at Dallas (4:15 p.m. ET, FOX)
The Cowboys (3-7 SU and ATS) are undefeated with Jason Garrett as their head coach and Jon Kitna as their quarterback. That's only two games, but still. Their most recent game was Sunday's 35-19 victory over the visiting Lions (+5), Kitna's former team. With QB Tony Romo (collarbone) possibly out for the season, Garrett is going conservative, giving tailbacks Felix Jones (4.1 yards per carry) and Marion Barber (3.2 yards) plenty of burn. Jones is questionable for Thursday with an injured hip; his fate might not be decided until kickoff.
New Orleans (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) has the No. 8-ranked rushing defense in the league in terms of efficiency, so even if Jones suits up, this is a tough spot for the Cowboys. The Saints have won each of their last three games SU and ATS, and they've done it with Chris Ivory and Julius Jones as their main tailbacks. Coach Sean Payton is being coy about whether Reggie Bush (4.0 yards per carry lifetime) will play Thursday; running backs tend to be more replaceable than the betting public believes them to be, as Ivory has shown. New Orleans was favored by 4.5 points (–105) at press time with a total of 51.
Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL)
Don't let all that tryptophan weigh you down, because the Jets (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) are about to put on a show. They've got the biggest Thanksgiving spread on the table at nine points (total: 43.5) as they prepare to carve up the Bengals (2-8 SYU, 3-7 ATS), one of the most disappointing teams in the league this year. But maybe the gap between the two isn't as imposing as the football odds would suggest. New York has 6.0 Estimated Wins this year, while Cincinnati sits at 3.9 EW.
You can blame it on point margins. The Bengals are on a seven-game losing streak at 1-6 ATS, but only one of those losses was by more than nine points. Five of them were by less than a converted touchdown. The Jets, on the other hand, have won twice this month in overtime (including against the Lions) and have dropped the cash in three of their last four games. But at least they're relatively healthy. The Bengals have been savaged by injuries; one of the latest casualties is kicker Mike Nugent, who faces reconstructive surgery on his right knee (his kicking leg) and has been replaced by another former Ohio State Buckeye, Aaron Pettrey. He was a stockboy at a Buckeyes merchandise store in Columbus before getting the call last week. The holiday special almost writes itself: An Aaron Pettrey Thanksgiving.
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