NCAAF Betting: Week 13 Betting Preview

by Bodog Sportsbook | Nov 25 2010

Welcome to a special Heisman Trophy version of our weekly college football betting preview. We’ve got three viable candidates left for the Heisman as we wind down the 2010 regular season. Auburn QB Cam Newton is easily the most deserving based on his on-field production, but he can’t seem to shake that nasty "pay for play" scandal. Voters (mostly journalists and former winners) may be inclined to go instead with Boise State QB Kellen Moore or Oregon RB LaMichael James.

All three Heisman candidates will be in action Friday night as the TV powers that be milk the Thanksgiving weekend. Check our NCAA Player Props page for head-to-head matchups, two featuring Newton vs. Moore and two featuring Newton vs. James.

Friday: Auburn at Alabama (2:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

This is the first time since 1994 that the Iron Bowl will be contested between two teams in the Top 10 of the AP rankings. The Tigers (11-0 SU, 704 ATS) are No. 2 in the polls, but they’re also 4-point road dogs against the No. 9 Crimson Tide (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS). The defending champions are actually No. 11 in the BCS rankings, so a win here is a must if they want to play in another BCS bowl. Auburn is 5-1 on the NCAAF futures market to win the national championship; a loss on Friday doesn’t necessarily prevent the Tigers from playing in Glendale on January 10.

Newton is the first SEC player to throw for 2,000 yards and rush for 1,000 in a season. The Tide defense has taken a bit of a step back this year, but Alabama’s offense is nearly as good as Auburn’s. Brian Fremeau has Newton and the Tigers ranked No. 2 in offensive efficiency, with RB Mark Ingram and the Tide offense ranked No. 4 overall. Auburn has enough questions on defense to power the OVER to a 7-4 record. The Tigers have also played just three games on the road thus far, albeit at 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. Both of Alabama’s losses were on the road.

Friday: Arizona at Oregon (7:00 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Oregon (10-0 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) is No. 1 in the polls by a wide margin, as well as the 4-5 favorite to win the national championship. The Ducks are so powerful that they’re laying 19 points to the Wildcats (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS), the No. 21 team on the BCS computers and No. 31 on the Fremeau Efficiency Index, just two spots behind Florida. But look what happened two weeks ago in Berkeley: The California Golden Bears (+18.5) drew up a blueprint to slow down Oregon’s offense and succeeded, only losing 15-13.

Arizona arguably has the best rush defense in the Pac-10, so it might be a bit much to ask James to outrun Newton by over 17.5 yards – that’s the spread for their prop, with the juice on Newton at –135. The Wildcats are also 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Oregon despite being the underdogs on each occasion. Live betting will be available on this matchup as well as the Iron Bowl. 

Friday: Boise State at Nevada (10:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)

The lamestream media may have forgotten about the Broncos (10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS), one of the chic picks to win the championship this year. But sharp handicappers have been pounding Boise State all season long. The Broncos are still in the title hunt at No. 4 in the BCS rankings and 7-2 on the futures market – anticipating an Auburn loss earlier in the day. They’re well balanced on both sides of the ball, as well, covering fat spreads even while driving the UNDER to the pay window in each of their last four ATS wins.

Nevada (10-1 SU, 5-6 ATS) has been very impressive this year at No. 19 in the polls, but this was achieved while playing the softest schedule of any of the 120 teams in the FBS, leaving the Wolf Pack No. 46 on the Fremeau Index. That’s why they’re getting 14.5 points (–115) at home on Friday night. But the Pack are 2-1 ATS against Boise State the past three years, taking the Broncos to overtime in 2007 before losing 69-67 as 25-point road dogs. Those five percent of bettors siding with Nevada (according to the consensus reports at press time) could be onto something.

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NFL Betting: Thanksgiving Day Betting Preview

by Bodog Sportsbook | Nov 25 2010

Believe it or not, the Thanksgiving tradition in the United States did not begin in Detroit in 1934. That's when the Lions started playing on the fourth Thursday in November; the Dallas Cowboys jumped on board in 1966, and 40 years later, the NFL created the Thanksgiving Classic tripleheader. We just can't get enough football betting – or cranberry sauce, for that matter. If that weren't enough, all three of our Turkey Day games will have live betting available.

New England at Detroit (12:30 p.m. ET, CBS)

The Lions (2-8 SU, 7-3 ATS) almost lost their Thanksgiving spot in 2008 after the usual suspects in the mainstream media complained about the lack of playoff implications. Once again, Detroit is well out of the picture, but you won't find a more profitable team in the NFL. The Lions franchise is on the upswing with Martin Mayhew as GM and Jim Schwartz as head coach. However, injuries have felled QB Matthew Stafford (shoulder) and several other important Lions for this matchup. They've dropped the cash in their last two games.

New England (8-2 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) is the true birthplace of American Thanksgiving, and locals have every reason to be thankful with the Patriots tied for the best record in the NFL. According to the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders, the 2010 Patriots offense is nearly as good as the 2007 version, which was the year the Pats went undefeated all the way up to the Super Bowl. But New England's defense only ranks No. 27 in the league, leaving the OVER at 8-2 on the season. The Week 11 NFL odds have the Patriots at –7 with a total of 51 points.

New Orleans at Dallas (4:15 p.m. ET, FOX)

The Cowboys (3-7 SU and ATS) are undefeated with Jason Garrett as their head coach and Jon Kitna as their quarterback. That's only two games, but still. Their most recent game was Sunday's 35-19 victory over the visiting Lions (+5), Kitna's former team. With QB Tony Romo (collarbone) possibly out for the season, Garrett is going conservative, giving tailbacks Felix Jones (4.1 yards per carry) and Marion Barber (3.2 yards) plenty of burn. Jones is questionable for Thursday with an injured hip; his fate might not be decided until kickoff.

New Orleans (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) has the No. 8-ranked rushing defense in the league in terms of efficiency, so even if Jones suits up, this is a tough spot for the Cowboys. The Saints have won each of their last three games SU and ATS, and they've done it with Chris Ivory and Julius Jones as their main tailbacks. Coach Sean Payton is being coy about whether Reggie Bush (4.0 yards per carry lifetime) will play Thursday; running backs tend to be more replaceable than the betting public believes them to be, as Ivory has shown. New Orleans was favored by 4.5 points (–105) at press time with a total of 51.

Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets (8:20 p.m. ET, NFL)

Don't let all that tryptophan weigh you down, because the Jets (8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS) are about to put on a show. They've got the biggest Thanksgiving spread on the table at nine points (total: 43.5) as they prepare to carve up the Bengals (2-8 SYU, 3-7 ATS), one of the most disappointing teams in the league this year. But maybe the gap between the two isn't as imposing as the football odds would suggest. New York has 6.0 Estimated Wins this year, while Cincinnati sits at 3.9 EW.

You can blame it on point margins. The Bengals are on a seven-game losing streak at 1-6 ATS, but only one of those losses was by more than nine points. Five of them were by less than a converted touchdown. The Jets, on the other hand, have won twice this month in overtime (including against the Lions) and have dropped the cash in three of their last four games. But at least they're relatively healthy. The Bengals have been savaged by injuries; one of the latest casualties is kicker Mike Nugent, who faces reconstructive surgery on his right knee (his kicking leg) and has been replaced by another former Ohio State Buckeye, Aaron Pettrey. He was a stockboy at a Buckeyes merchandise store in Columbus before getting the call last week. The holiday special almost writes itself: An Aaron Pettrey Thanksgiving.

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NFL Betting: Week 12 Betting Preview

by Bodog Sportsbook | Nov 24 2010

The Green Bay Packers have claimed another coaching victim. Two weeks ago, they destroyed the Dallas Cowboys 45-7, compelling owner Jerry Jones to sack coach Wade Phillips. Green Bay enjoyed the bye week, then returned Sunday to turf the Minnesota Vikings 31-3, resulting in the dismissal of Brad Childress. That unemployment streak should come to an end this week when the Packers visit the Atlanta Falcons. Meanwhile, perhaps Minnesota will respond the same way to its coaching change as Dallas did: by shredding the NFL odds with an upset victory on the road.

Thursday: New Orleans at Dallas (4:15 p.m. ET, FOX)

First up, there are three Thanksgiving Day games on the Week 12 slate – we wish all the best to you and yours. The Cowboys (3-7 SU and ATS) have won back-to-back games under interim coach Jason Garrett, who was the offensive co-ordinator and high-paid assistant to Phillips. In the absence of QB Tony Romo (broken collarbone), Garrett has gotten strong results from a low-risk running game. But the Dallas pass defense is one of the worst in the league, driving the OVER to the pay window in seven straight. The Saints (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) have won three in a row since that unsightly loss to the Cleveland Browns (+12 away) in Week 7.

Minnesota at Washington (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX)

Like many coaches, Childress is highly intelligent when it comes to football, but not so much when it comes to social skills. His departure will improve morale on a team that's underachieving mightily at 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS. Interim coach Leslie Frazier, formerly Childress' defensive co-ordinator, takes over the reins and has already thrown his support behind QB Brett Favre (10 TDs, 17 INTs) as the Vikings starter. The Redskins (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) appear to be doing the same for QB Donovan McNabb (10 TDs, 12 INTs), even though he's having his worst season since joining the league in 1999. Five of Washington's 10 games have been decided by a field goal. Check Bodog Sports for the latest NFL betting lines on this matchup.

Philadelphia at Chicago (4:15 p.m. ET, CBS)

Michael Vick didn't throw any TD passes last week, but he didn't need to in a 27-17 victory over the New York Giants (+3.5 away) on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles rushed for two scores (one by Vick) and David Akers went 4 of 5 on his field goals to earn the duke. Philadelphia remains the most efficient team in the league according to Football Outsiders; the Bears, also 7-3 (5-4-1 ATS), are only No. 19 overall in efficiency and will be getting 3.5 points (–115) on Sunday at Soldier Field. The UNDER is 4-1 in their last five encounters.

San Diego at Indianapolis (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)

It could be sink or swim for both these teams. The Colts (6-4 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) have picked up all four of their losses on the road, the last three by a field goal or less. The Chargers (5-5 SU and ATS) have won three in a row SU and ATS as they perform their annual late-season push in the AFC West. Both teams have injury concerns on offense, but quarterbacks Peyton Manning (20 TDs, seven INTs) and Philip Rivers (23 TDs, nine INTs) are healthy and playing at their usual Pro Bowl level. The Chargers are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings, winning all four games as the underdogs.

Monday: San Francisco at Arizona (8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN)

Last week's MNF matchup between the Chargers and the Denver Broncos didn't have much sizzle. ESPN was probably expecting bigger things from these two NFC West franchises, as well. Instead, we get a pair of teams at 3-7 SU and ATS, but both are still alive in a division where none of the four members has a winning record. The 49ers won their first two games with Troy Smith (five TDs, two INTs lifetime) at quarterback before getting shut out 21-0 last week by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5 away). The Cardinals have lost five in a row at 1-4 ATS, all with Derek Anderson (seven TDs, eight INTs) at the controls. San Francisco is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Cards.

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