NFL picks for Week 12

Sidney Rice had three catches for 56 yards in his first game of the season in Week 11 (AP).

I wanted to get these up early, since there’s three games being played on Thursday due to it being Thanksgiving and whatnot.

Last week was another one in the black for me, as I went 3-1 and improved my season record to 17-12-1. I don’t want to jinx it, but I’m picking up some momentum and starting to feel like I’m in a comfort zone with respect to exploiting matchups.

Using Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric, part of my formula is to get a good grasp on which teams are especially strong or weak on a given side of the ball and bet that way. Of course, intangibles are always worth considering, too, as are the all-important injuries in the NFL, but objectivity is always crucial in sports betting.

On with the picks …

Vikings (+2.5) at Redskins
A wise man once told me, don’t bet on two bad teams in a meaningless game. Not to incite an existential crisis in you, dear reader, but we might ponder the so-called meaning of this game, what with the Vikes promoting former defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier to head coach upon Brad Childress’ firing. Childress had no control over his lockerroom, which certainly didn’t help his cause, and there were other, more important issues at play, too, but I think Frazier’s ascent will galvanize the troops for a week.

If you’re looking for something more concrete than that, I’m thinking Sidney Rice’s return restores some balance to the Minnesota offense, which should have its way against the hideous Redskins defense. Don’t look too much into Washington’s win over the Titans last week — the came against an ineffective and then injured Vince Young and his backup, Rusty Smith. Who? Exactly.

Saints (-3.5) at Cowboys
The spread here is being depressed for a couple of reasons. First, after wins in consecutive weeks, the Cowboys are once again America’s Team, which means they are once again American’s Team To Bet On. People are buying Jason Garrett and his impact. Also, they’ll see some extra action because the Saints have to travel to Dallas, on short rest.

While I’m not discounting these as legitimate concerns, the fact remains that the Saints are a better team and a legitimate contender to make the playoffs in the NFC, and there’s a lot of value in them only laying 3.5 points here.

Eagles (-3) at Bears
Again, here’s a prime example of a big-market, popular team getting way more respect than it deserves. Bettors love the Bears. They’re tough and play lock-down defense. They also boast the worst offensive line in football and a pretty bad head coach, and their best win, against the Packers, came in an ugly game in which Green Bay was penalized heavily, turned the ball over and was dealing with injuries to several key players. Look for Philly to exploit Chicago’s porous offensive line and enjoy moderate offensive success. That’s about all it should take.

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