If revenge is a dish best served cold, then Edmonton is the perfect location. The CFL's northernmost city will host the 98th Grey Cup on Sunday, outdoors at Commonwealth Stadium, and the Saskatchewan Roughriders are looking for redemption after a "too many men" penalty handed last year's championship to the Montreal Alouettes. The CFL odds at press time have the Alouettes pegged as 3.5-point favorites with a total of 51.
You'll definitely want to wear a toque if you're going to be at the stadium, but don't expect this one to turn into a "Snow Bowl" like the 1996 Grey Cup in Hamilton. The weather forecast calls for partly cloudy skies and highs of 24 degrees Fahrenheit (minus-4 Celsius). The TV broadcast begins at 6:00 p.m. Eastern, or 4:00 p.m. Mountain, so there may still be some daylight hanging around by the time they kick the ball.
It's the Grey Cup, so naturally, there's a prop for that. Our football betting lines include a healthy dose of CFL props, including a couple for the weather.
What will be the temperature at kickoff? (Total: minus-8 Celsius)
Will it snow between kickoff and end of game? (YES +200; NO –300)
Aside from some flurries on Thursday, there's no snow in the forecast for Edmonton until December 2. That's too bad for the Roughriders. They're coming off a 20-16 upset of the Calgary Stampeders (–7.5) at snowy McMahon Stadium, with a nasty wind chill to boot. Meanwhile, the Alouettes (–10.5) were in short sleeves as they pummelled the Toronto Argonauts 48-17 indoors at Olympic Stadium. The Als shouldn't have any problems adjusting to Sunday's conditions.
Revenge is still on the mind of Saskatchewan supporters. Montreal (–9.5) took the 2009 Grey Cup 28-27 after Damon Duval got a second opportunity to kick the game-winning field goal, and from 33 yards out instead of 43. Forgotten in all the hubbub is how much work the Als had to do just to put themselves in position to win the game. They were down 27-11 halfway through the fourth quarter.
They didn't win the Cup, but the Green Riders did bag the cash. And they did it again in both of their regular season meetings with Montreal this year.
July 1: Montreal 51, Saskatchewan 54 (OT, SAS +3.5)
August 6: Saskatchewan 26, Montreal 30 (SAS +7)
That improves the Roughriders to 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Als, despite losing on three occasions. All four of those games produced at least 55 points; however, the OVER split the cash at 2-2, and it's been a saw-off against the total for both teams this year, 10-10 for the Riders and 9-9-1 for the Alouettes. Sunday's total will be the lowest between these two clubs since Darian Durant (30 TDs, 23 INTs) took over as Saskatchewan's starting quarterback.
Durant's inconsistency has been one of the top CFL stories of 2010. The former North Carolina Tar Heel did this last year, too, throwing 21 picks during the regular season to lead the CFL along with his 24 TD passes. On the plus side – and there are many pluses with Durant – he's an accomplished scrambler, picking up seven TDs on the ground at 7.7 yards per carry. But even this has its price; Durant fumbled the ball 13 times, tying Toronto QB Cleo Lemon for worst in the CFL.
In stark contrast, Montreal features the league's three-time Most Outstanding Player, QB Anthony Calvillo. He'll almost certainly earn his fourth MOP award after throwing 32 TD passes during the regular season with just seven picks. And as a pocket passer, Calvillo only fumbled the ball three times this year. His lack of rushing production is tempered by Avon Cobourne (5.2 yards per carry), last year's Grey Cup MVP. Cobourne appears to be healthy and on top of his game after picking up 216 combined yards against the Argonauts in the Eastern Final. Saskatchewan has one of the worst rushing defenses in the league, although the pass defense is strong, anchored by DB James Patrick and his CFL-best nine interceptions.
Flip that scenario for the Montreal defense. Riders RB Wes Cates (5.2 yards per carry) rushed for 15 TDs this year, more than anyone else in the league, but the Als are very good at stuffing the run. It's the air attack where Montreal is vulnerable. If "Good Durant" shows up on Sunday, he'll get his revenge. If not – well, that's the risk Riders supporters will have to take.
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