Points. Points everywhere. That's the weather forecast for our Week 11 Monday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and the San Diego Chargers. Neither team has done well against the spread this year, but combined, they've got the OVER checking in at 13-5. You can't ask for much more than that when you bet on football.
San Diego (4-5 SU and ATS, 6-3 OVER) is a 9-point chalk at Qualcomm Stadium, but the question this week is whether there's enough betting value in the OVER with the total set at 50 points. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight games between these two AFC West rivals, but only once has the total reached 50 points during that span. That was the 2008 regular season finale in San Diego. The Chargers needed the win to take the division title and make the playoffs; they got their wish, burying the Broncos 52-21 as 7-point favorites.
Some of the marquee names from that blowout will be missing on Monday night. Denver (3-6 SU and ATS) traded QB Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears in a package deal that brought QB Kyle Orton to Mile High. That turned out to be a successful deal for the Broncos – Orton has upped his completion rate from 55.3 percent in Chicago to 62.1 percent, and he's thrown just five picks this year to go with 16 touchdowns. As for the Chargers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson is gone, replaced by rookie Ryan Mathews (4.4 yards per carry).
At least, that was the plan. Mathews has been limited by a bad ankle and is listed as doubtful for this matchup after missing Saturday's practice. But San Diego has also gotten good production from FB Mike Tolbert (4.5 yards per carry, seven TDs), and the Chargers still have Darren Sproles (5.0 yards per carry) operating as a supporting tailback as well as returning punts and kicks. Denver has the No. 30-ranked rushing defense in the league in terms of efficiency according to Football Outsiders. If the Broncos can't stop San Diego on the ground, they can't be expected to cover the NFL odds.
That's because they can't stop the Bolts through the air, either. Philip Rivers might be the best quarterback in the league today. He leads the NFL in passing yards (2,944), touchdown passes (19) and yards per pass attempt (8.9). Rivers has a passer rating of 102.9, the third year in a row he's topped the century mark. But it appears he'll have to work without TE Antonio Gates (40 catches, nine TDs) and WR Legedu Naanee (11 catches), both of whom are listed as doubtful for Monday.
The Chargers could probably send one of their cheerleaders out wide and find her in the end zone for a touchdown. The Denver pass defense is even less efficient than its rush defense, ranking No. 31 in the league – only the Houston Texans have performed worse. This game really should be in the bag for San Diego. But the Broncos have that proverbial puncher's chance that comes with the No. 2-ranked passing offense in the NFL. If you go by the advanced DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) metric at Football Outsiders, Orton is the league's most productive QB with 1,110 DYAR, ahead of Tom Brady (1,054 DYAR) and Rivers (993 DYAR).
Too bad Orton isn't getting much support out there. The running attack, which used to churn out 1,000-yard tailbacks like clockwork, has fallen to No. 31 overall in efficiency (the Carolina Panthers were No. 32 after Week 10). Coach Josh McDaniels has completely overhauled his backfield over the past two years; the hope in Denver is that 2009 first-round pick Knowshon Moreno (3.7 yards per carry, two TDs) has shaken off his injury concerns after finally posting his first 100-yard game in last week's 49-29 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs (–1 at home).
The Chargers defense (No. 4 overall and No. 6 against the run) has thrived this year even with – or because of – the release of three-time Pro Bowl LB Shawne Merriman. Bad knees have kept Merriman (now injured and inactive with the Buffalo Bills) from regaining that form. However, San Diego has allowed at least 23 points in each of the last three games since his release, cashing in the OVER twice. Playing the total is definitely worth consideration again, especially if it doesn't creep up to 51 points by kickoff.
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