Showing posts with label Bodog. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bodog. Show all posts

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Tennis Betting: 2010 ATP World Tour Finals at Bodog Sportsbook

It doesn't have quite the same cachet as March Madness. But let's give it some time. The tennis betting lines are open for that sport's version of the Elite Eight, the ATP World Tour Finals. Tennis has had some resemblance of a postseason only since 1970, when the Masters Grand Prix brought together the best eight players on the men's tour. The format has been tweaked since then to give this event more importance. The four major tournaments are still the focal point of the tennis season, but the World Tour Finals are gaining a wider audience with each passing year.

The betting action will be flowing even more quickly with this year's event taking place at the O2 Arena in London, the (unofficial) birthplace of tennis. We already know the identities of the eight men who will participate in round-robin singles action on Sunday and Monday. Here are the first four matchups – all times are Eastern.

Sunday: No. 4 Robin Soderling vs. No. 5 Andy Murray (not before 2:00 p.m.)

The players are seeded according to how many points they accumulated on the ATP Tour, as well as the Grand Slam and Davis Cup tournaments. Soderling edged out Murray 5380-5360, but competed in more events to do so. Murray has the greater reputation and is priced accordingly on the tennis odds board at –140 to beat Soderling (EVEN). The Scotsman also has the advantage of playing in front of a partisan crowd on an indoor hardcourt, Murray's preferred surface. Soderling is a clay-court specialist who has reached the French Open finals the past two years. Murray went to the finals at the 2008 U.S. Open and 2010 Australian Open, both on hardcourt. However, the two men have split their four career matches (all on hard surfaces) with Soderling winning the last two, most recently this past March at Indian Wells.

Sunday: No. 2 Roger Federer vs. No. 7 David Ferrer (not before 8:00 p.m.)

Every time Federer starts to look past his prime at age 29, he comes back with something new. The former World's No. 1 has been playing more aggressively since adding Paul Annacone to his coaching team, and Federer also appears to be recovering from the punishment his legs and back have taken this season. But Federer (a four-time winner of this event) still lost to Gael Monfils at last week's Paris Masters semifinals – again, not Federer's best surface. Ferrer is putting his game back together after losing to Federer at the finals of this event in 2007; he has a pair of World Tour 500 victories to his credit this year, but that's about all there is on his resume. Federer is 10-0 lifetime against Ferrer and a –1000 chalk to make it 11-0.

Monday: No. 3 Novak Djokovic vs. No. 6 Tomas Berdych (not before 2:00 p.m.)

The last time we saw these two meet in London, it was Berdych eliminating Djokovic in straight sets at the Wimbledon semifinals – this was after Berdych had upset Federer in the quarters. But Djokovic has won all three matches the two have played on hard surfaces. Berdych has never managed to get out of the early rounds at the U.S. or Australian Open, while Djokovic's only Grand Slam title came at Melbourne in 2008. That's the same year he won this week's event, when it was still called the Tennis Masters Cup. Djokovic is –400 to take care of Berdych in Monday's matchup.

Monday: No. 1 Rafael Nadal vs. No. 8 Andy Roddick (not before 8:00 p.m.)

Nadal leads all players on the ATP Tour this year with seven victories, including the last three majors – he had to default to Murray at the Australian Open quarterfinals because of tendinitis in his knees. Although Nadal has run away with almost everything since, he's only a –275 favorite against Roddick (+200), one of the best hardcourt players there is. Back in March, Roddick beat Nadal in the semis of the ATP Tour event in Miami, improving to 3-2 lifetime against the Spaniard on hard surfaces. Nadal, who started his career as a clay-court specialist before elevating his game, is 3-0 against Roddick on clay or grass. Fatigue could be a factor for the World's No. 1; Nadal has never reached the finals of this year-end tournament, and skipped the Paris Masters (won by Soderling) to prepare for Monday.





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NFL Betting Lines: Broncos at Chargers on Monday Night Football at Bodog

Points. Points everywhere. That's the weather forecast for our Week 11 Monday Night Football matchup between the Denver Broncos and the San Diego Chargers. Neither team has done well against the spread this year, but combined, they've got the OVER checking in at 13-5. You can't ask for much more than that when you bet on football.

San Diego (4-5 SU and ATS, 6-3 OVER) is a 9-point chalk at Qualcomm Stadium, but the question this week is whether there's enough betting value in the OVER with the total set at 50 points. The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight games between these two AFC West rivals, but only once has the total reached 50 points during that span. That was the 2008 regular season finale in San Diego. The Chargers needed the win to take the division title and make the playoffs; they got their wish, burying the Broncos 52-21 as 7-point favorites.

Some of the marquee names from that blowout will be missing on Monday night. Denver (3-6 SU and ATS) traded QB Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears in a package deal that brought QB Kyle Orton to Mile High. That turned out to be a successful deal for the Broncos – Orton has upped his completion rate from 55.3 percent in Chicago to 62.1 percent, and he's thrown just five picks this year to go with 16 touchdowns. As for the Chargers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson is gone, replaced by rookie Ryan Mathews (4.4 yards per carry).

At least, that was the plan. Mathews has been limited by a bad ankle and is listed as doubtful for this matchup after missing Saturday's practice. But San Diego has also gotten good production from FB Mike Tolbert (4.5 yards per carry, seven TDs), and the Chargers still have Darren Sproles (5.0 yards per carry) operating as a supporting tailback as well as returning punts and kicks. Denver has the No. 30-ranked rushing defense in the league in terms of efficiency according to Football Outsiders. If the Broncos can't stop San Diego on the ground, they can't be expected to cover the NFL odds.

That's because they can't stop the Bolts through the air, either. Philip Rivers might be the best quarterback in the league today. He leads the NFL in passing yards (2,944), touchdown passes (19) and yards per pass attempt (8.9). Rivers has a passer rating of 102.9, the third year in a row he's topped the century mark. But it appears he'll have to work without TE Antonio Gates (40 catches, nine TDs) and WR Legedu Naanee (11 catches), both of whom are listed as doubtful for Monday.

The Chargers could probably send one of their cheerleaders out wide and find her in the end zone for a touchdown. The Denver pass defense is even less efficient than its rush defense, ranking No. 31 in the league – only the Houston Texans have performed worse. This game really should be in the bag for San Diego. But the Broncos have that proverbial puncher's chance that comes with the No. 2-ranked passing offense in the NFL. If you go by the advanced DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) metric at Football Outsiders, Orton is the league's most productive QB with 1,110 DYAR, ahead of Tom Brady (1,054 DYAR) and Rivers (993 DYAR).

Too bad Orton isn't getting much support out there. The running attack, which used to churn out 1,000-yard tailbacks like clockwork, has fallen to No. 31 overall in efficiency (the Carolina Panthers were No. 32 after Week 10). Coach Josh McDaniels has completely overhauled his backfield over the past two years; the hope in Denver is that 2009 first-round pick Knowshon Moreno (3.7 yards per carry, two TDs) has shaken off his injury concerns after finally posting his first 100-yard game in last week's 49-29 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs (–1 at home).

The Chargers defense (No. 4 overall and No. 6 against the run) has thrived this year even with – or because of – the release of three-time Pro Bowl LB Shawne Merriman. Bad knees have kept Merriman (now injured and inactive with the Buffalo Bills) from regaining that form. However, San Diego has allowed at least 23 points in each of the last three games since his release, cashing in the OVER twice. Playing the total is definitely worth consideration again, especially if it doesn't creep up to 51 points by kickoff.

Get all your NFL odds at Bodog. Be a Player.



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