Looking Ahead to 2011: San Diego Padres Bullpen

A major reason why the San Diego Padres are so successful during the 2010 season is that their bullpen is outstanding. There is very little to suggest that it San Diego can not to do it again next even with a couple of defections.

Heath Bell

Bell does have classic closing hard stuff. His fastball reaches as high as 98 mph and a nasty hard slider as well. That stuff plays very well in every ballpark not just Petco Park. His 2010 season is very dominating (6-1 47 saves 1.93 ERA 1.2 WHIP over 70 innings). Bell does have excellent control as well (3.07k/bb ratio), and is almost impossible to hit a home run against (only 1 given up in 2010). He also generates a lot of swing and misses when he comes, and his strikeout rate certainly reflects that (11.06k/9). All of this adds up to being an elite closer for San Diego. However, that also makes Bell too expensive for the Padres to make any sort of long term commitment to. That is why his name is constantly in the trade rumors. It is not a question if the Padres will trade Bell, but rather a matter of when it will happen. Bell will start the season as the Padres closer, but how long he does remain in San Diego is anyone's guess.

Luke Gregerson

Gregerson is one of the few consistent relief pitchers from year to year. Of course, his major league career only spans two seasons but they are very good seasons. His 2010 season establishes him as a future closer in waiting (4-7 2 saves 3.22 ERA .83 WHIP over 78.1 innings). At first glance at his scouting report, Gregerson seems like a typical sinker/slider setup man. However, his sinker bores in on hitters bats causing them to shatter, and his slider is a true wipeout pitch. Gregerson does have better control than Bell (4.94 K/BB ratio in 2010) and is almost as dominant at getting hitters to strikeout (10.23k/9). Opponents do find a bit easier to take out of the ballpark than Bell (8 homers given up in 2010), but that is a small quibble in the grand scheme here. Gregerson is the top candidate to replace Bell as a closer when the Bell trade happens.

Mike Adams

The one time future closer of the Milwaukee Brewers is now one of the best setup men in major league baseball these days. Adams, along with Bell and Gregerson, forms one of the best trios at the end of the game which shortens the game up for San Diego opponents. Adams does have a power sinker that induces a lot of ground ball outs, but also a 4 seam fastball that can use to get the strikeout when he needs it. Adams 2010 season just reaffirms his standing (4-1 1.76 ERA .933 WHIP over 66.2 innings). He does have a very good strikeout rate (9.84k/9) along with excellent control (3.17k/bb ratio), and is near impossible to take him yard as well (only 2 homers given up in 2010). Adam is coming back to the Padres and is a top setup man for them in 2011.

Joe Thatcher

Thatcher is the resident LOOGY (Lefty One Out GuY) in the Padres bullpen, and that is a role that he is very good at. His 2010 number indicate that he borders on dominating in that role (1-0 1.29 ERA .857 WHIP in 65 games). Thatcher's sinker is almost unhittable to left handers. His strikeout rate is excellent (11.57) as is his control (6.43k/bb). Thatcher will have the same role in 2011 for San Diego.

Tim Stauffer

Tim Stauffer can give a course on pitcher abuse on the college level (College coaches can burn out a pitcher looking at the short term interest of keeping the head coaching job and not thinking of the pitcher's future). His stuff never recovers from the abuse he takes his final two years in college. Now his fastball rests in the low 90s, and Stauffer makes do changing speeds while mixing in his curveball and an above average changeup. He is a candidate for the rotation, if the Padres can not bring back Jon Garland this offseason. Still, his best role looks like as along man out of the pen getting some spot starts here and there.

Trevor Hoffman

Hoffman is the all time leader in saves for major league baseball. The 2011 season looks like it is going to be his last one, and he is no longer the consistent closer anymore. However, there is considerable talk that Hoffman is going to sign with San Diego so the circle is complete. It does make a nice story, but the real question is if the Padres can afford the sentimental journey.

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Looking Ahead to 2011: San Diego Padres Infield

The Padres infield is in a bit of flux these days. Their best offensive player, Adrian Gonzalez, still does have trade rumors swirling all around him, and it is only a question of when not if Gonzalez gets dealt to. It appears very unlikely that their nominal double play combination (Eckstein and Tejada) are coming back as well. The only infielder that is secure in his starting job is 3b Chase Headley.

First Base: Adrian Gonzalez for now, but for how long?

Adrian Gonzalez is the one real power threat that the Padres do have on their team. He is their best offensive player overall, and it is not even close. It is scary to think what the Padres offensive does look like when Gonzalez is not in the lineup (.298/.393/.511 over 692 PAs for 2010). Gonzalez does have excellent power (31 homers in 2010) to go with a very good eye at the plate (93bb/114 k). All of this makes him very much in demand to a few contending teams. Boston is a very good fit, and they are consistent in the pursuit for him. Another team like Texas could be in on it depending on the prospect price they would need to pay. When Gonzalez does get traded, then San Diego is going to move Kyle Banks from the outfield to first base.

Second Base: Who plays here?

David Eckstein is the most day’s starter for the Padres in 2010, but without his speed (only 8 steals in 2010) he does bring much to the plate (.267/.321/.326 over 492 PAs in 2010). He does have a good idea of the strike zone (27bb/35k), but without power or speed it does not mean much. The Padres decide not to offer arbitration to Eckstein so it seems unlikely that he is going to be back with them in 2011.

Jerry Hairston Jr. is a possibility to be the starting 2b for San Diego next year. He is currently a free agent, and both sides do have interest in playing for San Diego in 2011. It is a question of dollars, as always, with the Padres. Hairston is not much of a hitter and 2010 backs that up (.244/.299/.353 over 416 PAs). However, he is solid defensively and able to play the middle infield spots along with the outfield.

Another possibility is Everth Cabrera moving over from shortstop (if the Padres sign or deal for a vet shortstop in the offseason). Cabrera does have outstanding speed though it does not always translate into stolen bases (10 steals, 6 caught stealing). His 2010 season leaves a lot of question if he can hit enough to play every day (.208/.279/.278). He does have a strong arm, so if he does move to second base he is going to be a plus defensive player there.

Shortstop: Miguel Tejada or a trade?

Miguel Tejada is the nominal starting shortstop here, but he is a free agent and San Diego chooses to not offer him any arbitration (mainly because they can not afford Tejada to bump up from his 6 million dollar salary in his last contract). There are a couple other clubs (St. Louis and San Francisco) that are showing some interest in Tejada, because of a poor shortstop market in free agency. He does still have some pop in his bar, and his time in San Diego is not that bad (.268/.317/.413 over 253 PAs). Tejada does provide a league average bat, which is pretty rare in the San Diego offense. He also shows some very good defense at shortstop as well.

Another possibility is the Padres make a deal for the Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett. The Rays are not in a hurry to deal Bartlett, because they do want to see where Juan Uribe does sign so they can have a better idea who really wants him. Bartlett is a decent offensive player, who is only an average defensive shortstop. Still even a struggling Bartlett is a major upgrade offensively from the 2010 version of Everth Cabrera.

Third Base: Chase Headley is a secure starter

Chase Headley is the only Padres starting infielder that is totally secure in his position heading into the 2011 season. His 2010 numbers are just about league average (.264/.327/.375 over 674 PAs), and he does have a little bit of pop in his bat (11 homers in 2010) along with a good bit of speed (17 steals, 5 caught). That combination makes him a rather intriguing offensive player for the Padres. However, like Will Venable, Headley does strikeout a shade more often that San Diego does like to see. He is a plus defender at the hot corner as well. Headley is a solid starter for the Padres.

Logan Forsythe is a possibility to crack into the starting lineup at second base. The third sacker moves over to second base for the 2010 season, and he looks like a solid enough defensive player there. That is good, because now he can lay a claim for at least part of the second base job. He does have a good eye; San Diego thinks the power will come in time. However, scouts are very unsure about that every happening.

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