Michigan has assured itself a winning season - that's all fine and good. But nobody in Ann Arbor is fully satisfied unless the Wolverines beat Ohio State.
The Wolverines will get their chance Saturday, Nov. 27, when they face the No. 8-ranked Buckeyes in a Big Ten Conference football finale at Columbus, Ohio. The question is if that opportunity will turn out to be anything more than a shot in the dark.
Michigan has taken some strides in 2010 under coach Rich Rodriguez. They've ended a streak of two straight losing seasons, and have become bowl eligible. Yet success in college football's winningest program is measured heavily on how it measures up against Ohio State, and the Wolverines haven't done well there lately. And Saturday's test will be another difficult one.
The Wolverines (7-4 overall, 3-4 Big Ten) do feature one of the nation's most dynamic players in quarterback Denard Robinson. But Ohio State (10-1, 6-1) has a highly touted QB of its own in Terrelle Pryor. And the Buckeyes have something that Michigan has been sorely lacking. It's called defense.
Coach Jim Tressel's OSU squad ranks third in the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision in total defense (241.5 yards allowed per game) and is fifth in scoring defense (13.9 points). Michigan, meanwhile, is 112th in total defense (445.2 yards) and 99th in scoring defense (33.6 points).
The Wolverines will also have to face a team that will be playing for a conference title. Ohio State is in a three-way tie with Michigan State and Wisconsin for first place in the Big Ten, and can clinch at least a share of its sixth consecutive conference crown by beating Michigan.
The Buckeyes kept pace with its Big Ten co-leaders with a thrilling 20-17 comeback victory at No. 24 Iowa. Michigan, meanwhile, is coming off a 48-28 loss to No. 5 Wisconsin.
Saturday's matchup is scheduled for Noon EST and will be telecast by ABC. It will mark the 107th meeting between Michigan and OSU. The Wolverines hold a 57-43-6 series lead, but Ohio State has taken the last six meetings — including a 21-10 decision last year at Ann Arbor.
The Wolverines haven't topped OSU since posting a 35-21 win in 2003 and hasn't won at Columbus since a 38-26 triumph in 2000. Their prospects in 2010 hinge heavily on how well they hold up against Pryor and a well-balanced Buckeyes offense.
The Ohio State Offense
The Buckeyes are ninth nationally in scoring offense (39.6 points) and they're pounding out an impressive 446.2 yards per game. They've thrown 12 interceptions — 10 by Pryor — but they've lost only two fumbles. So their overall turnover count is one of the lower ones in the FBS. Pass protection has been rather average, with OSU yielding 21 sacks.
Pryor's completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 2,331 yards and 23 touchdowns, and he's second on his team in rushing with 590 yards and four TDs. Hard-nosed Dan Herron has been the go-to back, rushing for 893 yards and 14 touchdowns, and catching 18 passes for 180 yards. Backup Brandon Saine has added 304 rushing yards with two TDs, and hauled in 18 passes for 184 yards and five scores.
Ohio State also has two productive wide receivers in Dane Sanzenbacher (49 catches, 817 yards, 9 TDs) and DeVier Posey (45 receptions, 696 yards, 5 TDs). Another option is tight end Jake Stoneburner (15 catches, 150 yards, 2 TDs).
OSU has done well controlling the ball, ranking seventh nationally in time of possession (32 minutes, 37 seconds per game). That could be pivotal against Michigan, because keeping the Wolverines offense on the sidelines can't be a bad thing for the Buckeyes.
The Michigan Offense
The Wolverines haven't been in peak form offensively the past couple games, but they're averaging 36.8 points per game. They rank fifth in the FBS in total offense (514.5 yards per game) and are 10th in rushing offense (257.4 yards). But turnovers have been a problem, with Michigan losing the ball 24 times.
Robinson has run for 1,538 yards and 14 touchdowns, setting the FBS record for single-season rushing by a quarterback. Plus, he's connected on 63.4 percent of his passes for 2,229 yards and 16 touchdowns, and his speed is one reason the Wolverines have yielded only 10 sacks. On the other hand, the sophomore has thrown 10 of his team's 13 interceptions.
The receiving corps features Roy Roundtree (58 catches, 839 yards, 6 TDs), Darryl Stonum (35 receptions, 493 yards, 4 TDs) and Junior Hemingway (28 catches, 544 yards, 4 TDs). A bevy of running backs includes Vincent Smith (571 yards, 5 TDs), Michael Shaw (331 yards, 8 TDs) and Stephen Hawkins (151 yards, 4 TDs). Shaw sat out the Wisconsin game because of concussion-like symptoms.
The most interesting matchup of the game could be the collision between Michigan's explosive ground atttack and Ohio State's suffocating run defense.
The Ohio State Defense
The Buckeyes are third in the nation in run defense, giving up only 86.4 yards per game and 2.9 yards per attempt. And they're strong against the pass, too, allowing only 155.1 yards per contest. Ohio State's also been very opportunistic, with 17 interceptions among 26 takeaways. The pass rush has been more pedestrian, with OSU managing only 18 sacks.
Brian Rolle has lifted the Buckeyes with a team-high 62 tackles. The weak-side linebacker has made eight tackles for loss, in addition to a pair of interceptions. Middle linebacker Ross Homan has contributed 55 tackles, and safety/linebacker Jermale Hines has 53 stops.
Cornerback Chimdi Chekwa paces Ohio State with three interceptions and eight pass breakups, and has made 34 tackles. The other corner, Devon Torrence, has two interceptions, six breakups and 38 stops.
End Nathan Williams leads the Buckeyes with 3.5 sacks and has seven tackles for loss. He's part of a sturdy line that also includes highly touted end Cameron Heyward (36 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks) and tackle John Simon (33 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss).
The Michigan Defense
Michigan's pass defense (263.9 yards per game) ranks 111th in the FBS, but don't expect Ohio State to get all crazy with the aerial game. The Wolverines, after all, are only 92nd in run defense, yielding 181.3 yards.
The Wolverines have received some admirable efforts. Linebcker Jonas Mouton has made 102 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss and two interceptions. Safety Jordan Kovacs, a former walk-on, has 95 tackles and 7.5 tackles for loss. Other key players include safety/linebacker Cameron Gordon (68 tackles, 2 interceptions), end Craig Roh (39 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss) and linebacker Kenny Demens (61 tackles).
Michigan will need huge games from interior iinemen like Greg Banks (32 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 3 sacks), MIke Martin (30 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks) and Ryan Van Bergen (25 tackles, 5.5 tackles for loss, 3 sacks). And more big plays would help. Michigan's managed only 17 takeaways and 16 sacks this season.
Special Teams
The Wolverines also need improvement in its kicking and return games. Seth Broekhuizen and Brerndan Gibbons have combined to make only four of 13 field goal attempts, and the longest has been from 37 yards out. Michigan's punt return average is only 4.3 yards, and kickoff returns haven't been anything special, either. On the plus side, Will Hagerup is averaging a solid 43.6 yards per punt, and kick coverage has been sound.
Ohio State kicker Devin Barclay has been sharp, nailing 16 of 19 field goal attempts with a season long of 48. Punter Ben Buchanan has been more ordinary, averaging 40.9 yards with one kick being blocked. Overall, OSU has had three kicks blocked, but two came on field goal attempts of more than 50 yards by kickoff specialist Drew Basil.
Jordan Hall has provided spark on both punt and kickoff returns, posting respective averages of 10.1 and 25.4 yards per runback. Freshman Jamaal is also managing 25.4 yards per kickoff return. But the Buckeyes have been inconsistent in coverage. Opponents have returned two kickoffs and one punt for touchdowns. They're netting 12.7 yards per punt runback.
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